Mesoscale Discussion 2302
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds of 45 to 60 mph across east-central Indiana and central Ohio through the early evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 161946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161946 OHZ000-INZ000-162145- Mesoscale Discussion 2302 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 Areas affected...east-central Indiana into central Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161946Z - 162145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds of 45-60 mph will be possible with stronger thunderstorms developing through early evening. Overall risk is expected to remain limited, and a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the IN/OH state border this afternoon. This activity is developing ahead of a stalled front and on the southern periphery of stronger effective shear located north of this boundary. Stronger heating across east-central IN into central OH has allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s to near 90 F amid mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate instability. Effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt may allow for some storm organization. However, weak midlevel lapse rates will limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts. Nevertheless, steepened low-level lapse rates and high PW values could support sporadic strong outflow wind gusts. Overall, the risk is expected to remain limited and mostly sub-severe wind gusts are anticipated, precluding watch issuance. ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40178559 40798440 40878292 40458191 40008182 39698200 39448292 39368434 39548533 39888566 40178559 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH