Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
No organized severe thunderstorms are expected today. Isolated thunderstorms may occur across western Oklahoma and portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through tomorrow morning, though the risk of severe weather remains limited.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 251953 SWODY1 SPC AC 251951 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the forecast remains largely on track. Isolated thunderstorm development is noted across portions of western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, but cloud cover continues to generally temper surface heating ahead of this activity. While a stronger gust or two may still be possible (particularly where any developing convection can interact with pockets of stronger heating/greater low-level lapse rates), the overall severe risk continues to appear limited owing to the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic environment. While the overall environment is marginally more favorable farther southwest across portions of southeast NM/West TX, relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and the displacement of better synoptic-scale forcing for ascent farther to the northwest suggest that convection will largely be tied to terrain influences. Coupled with a relatively narrow zone of greater buoyancy (as depicted by 19z objective analysis), this suggests that the overall severe risk should remain limited. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Chalmers/Dean.. 09/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise, across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow, more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a moist boundary layer. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX... Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in the wake of the early day MCS. ...Western OK... While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear, weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall severe risk appears limited. $$