Day 3 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 271918 SWODY3 SPC AC 271917 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns. ...Central/Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... The forecast for Monday remains uncertain with forecast guidance depicting a wide envelop for severe potential across portions of the Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest. At the large scale, an upper ridge will persist from the central Gulf Coast northward to the Upper Great Lakes. Further west, a shortwave upper trough is forecast to eject from the central Rockies into Manitoba/western Ontario. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure or an MCV over the Dakotas will lift generally northeast while a trough/surface front extends southward across the eastern Dakotas. The evolution of these features is uncertain, with some guidance lifting the low and any accompany severe risk quickly northward into Canada early in the day. Other guidance is slower and further south, favoring a corridor of severe potential across the eastern Dakotas and MN during the day. While these details remain a question mark, a very moist airmass will be in place with strong to extreme instability forecast. Depending on mesoscale details, an all-hazards severe risk could develop - though damaging wind and large hail appear most likely at this time. Given uncertainty, outlook changes are modest with this update. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2026 $$