Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts exceeding 75 mph and isolated large hail are expected across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley from this evening through the early overnight hours. Areas at risk include eastern South Dakota, south-central Minnesota, and southeastern Montana.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 080059 SWODY1 SPC AC 080057 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts potentially above 75 mph, and isolated large hail are expected across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley from this evening into the early overnight period. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains this evening. At the surface, a low will move eastward into eastern South Dakota as a cold front advances southward across central and southern South Dakota. The front will provide a focus for convective development this evening, although scattered storms are also expected across parts of the post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints over most of South Dakota are in the 60s F, with lower to mid 70s F over south-central Minnesota. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 2500 J/kg near Rapid City to just above 3500 J/kg in far eastern South Dakota. Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong to severe storms will develop near the instability axis early this evening and grow upscale, tracking eastward across eastern South Dakota into south-central Minnesota. Within this corridor, moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for a severe threat...see MCD 1536. Any short line segment that can become organized will likely be capable of severe wind gusts and hail. There will be potential for wind gusts above 75 mph with any line segment that can become robust. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from near Rapid City northwestward into southeastern Montana. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to develop this evening and move southeastward along this axis of instability. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. As convective coverage increases, a potential for severe wind gusts is also expected with any short line segment that can become intense...see MCD 1535. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2026 $$