Day 3 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and the Lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 161936 SWODY3 SPC AC 161936 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...NE/IA/KS/MO... Moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the region, with some cooling aloft late in the day. Low pressure will develop over western KS into southwest NE ahead of a convectively enhanced front which will drop south across I-80 in NE/IA. The presence of morning thunderstorms may further augment the boundary, and lends uncertainty to positioning. However, a plume of strong heating will exist as southwest low-level winds develop during the day near an east of the surface low, and strong instability may develop across the warm sector. The area over NE appears quite favorable for supercells given some model progs, with deep-layer shear to 50 kt, and increased SRH near the boundary. Given the expected southeastward storm motions, supercells could remain on any such boundary, with isolated tornado potential. Very large hail may also occur with the late afternoon/early evening cells before likely mergers into an MCS, which may produce damaging winds as far south as northeast KS and northern MO. Given uncertainties, will maintain 15% coverage, but with conditional CIG1 area. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2026 $$