Day 2 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and parts of northeast South Dakota. Isolated damaging winds may also occur in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, New England, southeast Arizona, and central to eastern South Dakota and western Nebraska.
Product Text
000 ACUS02 KWNS 020451 SWODY2 SPC AC 020450 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered severe storms are expected across eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and a small part of northeast South Dakota Monday afternoon into evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards. Isolated damaging winds are possible from central and eastern South Dakota into western Nebraska, in portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England, and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A vigorous short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks initially over the northern Rockies Monday morning will progress through the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to weaken while developing from western SD into northwest ON, along a cold front advancing through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. The southern extension of the front will push into the central High Plains, where it will link with a secondary cyclone over eastern CO. Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will progress through the Northeast with a preceding belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds overspreading that region. The associated surface low is expected to track along the St. Lawrence Valley, while a trailing front moves through the Mid-Atlantic and much of New England. ...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from central ND into the ND-MN Red River Valley, within a zone of warm advection and moisture transport at the terminus of a low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ will persist through the day, aiding in air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms. By afternoon, the combination of daytime heating, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, and steep lapse rates is expected to yield a moderately unstable, but capped pre-frontal air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid- to late afternoon along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries in eastern ND into northwest MN, where stronger dynamic forcing for ascent should erode the cap. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear will contribute to organized storm modes, including supercells and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. The presence of a 30-40 kt LLJ will lead to sizable, clockwise-curved hodographs with 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 during the evening. However, the overall tornado threat remains uncertain as forecast soundings indicate continued capping within the inflow air mass, poor low-level lapse rates, and only a small amount of 0-3 km CAPE. Storm development farther south along the front in SD and NE remains more uncertain due to capping concerns. Should storms develop, the environment would support the potential for severe wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. Associated clouds and precipitation are likely to linger into afternoon, limiting air mass destabilization in some areas. However, where stronger heating can occur, the presence of dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Aided by forcing for ascent attendant to the short-wave trough, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the front, namely in areas that experience greater air mass destabilization. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the presence of 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear may support embedded bowing segments capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the Gila Mountains as well as along favored terrain nearer to the international border. A subsequent merging of the separate regimes appears possible by late afternoon into evening. The presence of a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg suggests the potential for severe wind gusts, especially if some cold pool organization can occur. ..Mead.. 08/02/2026 $$