Mesoscale Discussion 2154
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains may bring an isolated risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts through this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 272103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272102 COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-272300- Mesoscale Discussion 2154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central and southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272102Z - 272300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring an isolated risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts through this evening. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered convection has developed along the Front Range of Colorado and the Raton Meso/southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains in northeastern New Mexico as of 2045 UTC. Surface observations suggest temperatures are near 90 F with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s downstream across the High Plains, which is supporting 500 to locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. This area is displaced to the south of stronger mid- and upper-level flow, with only 20-30 kts of effective shear noted across the region. This is sufficient to support a mix of clusters and marginal supercell structures, however. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates along with dry, well-mixed boundary layer profiles (LCLs of 2000-2500+ m) will support a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts with this convection. However, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time as lingering inhibition (indicated by recent objective analysis) and only modest effective shear are expected to temper overall severe risk and spatially confine it to the higher terrain and Foothills. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 08/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 38730563 37080551 35800534 35580524 35400506 35300483 35270443 35410417 35640400 35960385 36760377 39640362 40320362 40790377 41120402 41280427 41440466 41350502 41060540 40600558 38730563 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN