Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-08-16 12:44 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms, including risks of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, are expected across parts of the central and southern United States on Sunday. These hazards range from marginal to slight severity and are forecast to affect a broad area throughout the day.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 161244 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026 VALID TIME 161300Z - 171200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 36977633 37267603 37817574 38047570 38267576 38577606 38907651 39207704 40307943 40558044 40498110 40318159 39958195 39618218 39168235 38718234 38258217 37888167 37658111 37067949 36717794 36717703 36767664 36977633 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 36070446 36070487 36350532 37040549 38040557 39570546 41000519 42000483 42880452 43470454 44650522 45280552 46170511 46480434 46550351 46130266 45600207 45010145 44650105 44350087 43770081 43220110 42540146 41360191 39520225 38190241 37190282 36300344 36110402 36070446 0.15 37550433 37570471 37760505 38000514 39160511 41120480 41570463 41880418 41980378 41880341 41500313 39570300 38410309 37950326 37620359 37550433 && ... WIND ... 0.05 35437488 35357676 35357805 35437866 36008021 36418163 36708254 36758370 36988672 36828828 36768980 36659065 36579257 36669378 36909421 37499414 37989390 38439333 39429143 40828603 41728032 41537910 40897744 39657525 38567385 0.05 34950241 34910288 34980399 35310475 36250529 38140525 40580500 41630406 42700356 43530357 44510448 45390473 45960445 46230372 46360283 46150180 45910134 45460074 44740029 43999974 42949939 42239975 41380058 40380103 38980101 38260066 37720029 37030000 36409989 35610015 35180059 34960198 34950241 0.15 36547518 36727794 37057956 37658120 38008285 37908500 37838826 37868926 38208953 38508944 38858898 39278768 39608611 40188359 40668093 40327949 39237703 37717450 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... SLGT 36547518 36727794 37057956 37658120 38008285 37838826 37868926 38208953 38508944 38858898 39278768 40188359 40668093 40327949 39237703 37817466 SLGT 39160511 41120480 41570463 41880418 41980378 41880341 41500313 39570300 38410309 37950326 37620359 37550433 37570471 37760505 38000514 39160511 MRGL 35437488 35357676 35357805 35437866 36008021 36708254 36988672 36659065 36579257 36669378 36909421 37499414 37989390 38439333 39429143 40828603 41728032 41537910 40897744 39657525 38787414 MRGL 39570546 41000519 42880452 43470454 45280552 46170511 46480434 46550351 46330306 46360283 46150180 45460074 43999974 42949939 42239975 41380058 40380103 38980101 38260066 37720029 37030000 36409989 35610015 35180059 34960198 34910288 34980399 35310475 36250529 37040549 38040557 39570546 TSTM 50149512 49059709 47689749 45959833 45049868 43909827 42529735 41629653 41309501 41429037 42798721 44638553 45578613 46188662 47938610 99999999 27037947 27208099 27318337 99999999 35341022 35700883 36880707 38380707 40500656 41790612 42370630 42370711 41640912 41050934 40541007 40471110 40321268 39951374 39081429 38091480 37101425 35811367 35451194 35341022 99999999 30851139 32371049 32721063 32921069 33411090 33911132 34441197 34541284 33941308 33611307 33161385 33261456 33761513 34871610 35561671 36201704 36841718 38491746 39661737 40921624 42081683 42841754 43431792 43751867 43501963 43272090 43752160 44372108 45461941 46511730 47391689 47981751 47921923 48262118 49622183 99999999 46117143 45417121 43767176 43187293 42297295 41417203 40626982 99999999 32218503 33948367 34968327 35518360 35868412 36098494 36238669 35638923 34278922 33218832 32348751 31938718 31698599 32218503 99999999 28559061 28829135 29399201 30009240 30819232 32389160 33229192 33799232 34399332 34669443 34609693 33850017 33650215 32440358 31230355 30260262 28770264 && THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ECG 0 - AVC 30 SW LYH 10 SSW BKW 30 SSW HTS 40 WSW EVV 0 - MDH 30 SE BLV 20 E BLV 15 N SLO 25 WSW HUF 40 ENE DAY 35 NNW HLG 0 - LBE 20 W BWI 45 E WAL THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW COS 0 - CYS 30 NNE CYS 15 S TOR 10 NW BFF 10 E BFF 30 NNW SNY 45 SSE AKO 30 NW LAA 15 ESE LHX 30 S LHX 20 N TAD 30 NW TAD 45 SW PUB 40 WSW PUB 30 NW COS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE HSE 25 NE EWN 10 SSW GSB 30 SSE RDU 15 WSW GSO 20 NNW TRI 15 W BWG 15 SW POF 25 NNW FLP 15 SSE UMN 15 W UMN 30 NE JLN 55 SSW SZL 25 SSE SZL 40 SSW UIN 50 NW MIE 25 SSW ERI 25 NNW DUJ 20 E UNV 15 S PHL 50 SSE ACY THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW DEN 20 WSW CYS 45 ENE DGW 65 NE DGW 10 SSW 4BQ 55 NNE 4BQ 10 NNW BHK 40 WSW DIK 35 SSW DIK 30 S DIK 25 NE Y22 15 WSW MBG 25 NW 9V9 40 NE ANW 25 SSE ANW 20 NNE LBF 25 WNW MCK 45 SE GLD 25 N GCK 20 W DDC 50 S DDC 10 NW GAG 50 SSW GAG 55 NNW CDS 25 SW AMA 45 NE CVS 25 WSW TCC 35 SE LVS 40 N LVS 35 SE ALS 45 NNE ALS 35 WSW DEN GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 N RRT 20 NNW HCO 25 SW GFK 35 N ABR 30 SSW ABR 15 NW MHE 30 S YKN 20 WSW TQE 45 NNE SDA 0 - MLI 30 E RAC 0 - TVC 50 ESE ESC 40 NE ESC 120 NE MQT ...CONT... 45 ENE PBI 35 SE AGR 50 W SRQ ...CONT... 35 NE INW 15 NNW GUP 40 ESE DRO 15 SW GUC 60 NNE EGE 40 NW LAR 40 SSE CPR 40 N RWL 0 - RKS 40 SSW RKS 30 WNW VEL 55 S EVW 15 NE DPG 55 SSE ENV 30 ESE ELY 35 NNW P38 40 SSE P38 40 NNE IGM 25 NW FLG 35 NE INW ...CONT... 80 SW FHU 30 NE TUS 45 NNE TUS 60 NNE TUS 65 E PHX 50 NE PHX 30 ESE PRC 25 WSW PRC 60 SW PRC 50 NNW GBN 55 NE YUM 25 SSE BLH 25 WNW BLH 40 E DAG 50 N DAG 50 NE NID 65 W DRA 35 NW TPH 15 NW U31 25 WNW EKO 35 WNW OWY 25 NE REO 60 N REO 15 NE BNO 35 W BNO 70 S RDM 40 SSW RDM 10 NNE RDM 35 WSW PDT 20 SSW PUW 35 ESE GEG 25 N GEG 40 SSE OMK 75 NW EAT 65 NNE BLI ...CONT... 90 NNE EFK 55 N BML 20 NW LCI 25 S RUT 15 NW BAF 0 - GON 45 SSE ACK ...CONT... 20 SSW CSG 20 W AHN 45 NW AND 30 SE TYS 0 - TYS 10 NE CSV 0 - BNA 20 W MKL 20 ESE UOX 30 SSE CBM 30 W SEM 30 SSW SEM 15 S TOI 20 SSW CSG ...CONT... 70 S HUM 65 SW HUM 30 SSE 7R4 20 NW 7R4 40 S ESF 25 ESE MLU 30 SSW LLQ 35 SW PBF 15 WSW HOT 25 SSE RKR 20 NNE ADM 40 S CDS 20 W LBB 25 SW HOB 45 SSW INK 30 WNW 6R6 90 SSW 6R6