Mesoscale Discussion 1581
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
High-based monsoonal thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph are moving into southeastern Arizona and far southwestern New Mexico this afternoon and evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 102237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102237 NMZ000-AZZ000-110030- Mesoscale Discussion 1581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102237Z - 110030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun to move off the higher terrain and into portions of southwestern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona. These high-based monsoonal thunderstorms will be capable of some damaging wind gusts approaching 60 MPH. DISCUSSION...Current radar trends show convection moving west-southwest off the higher terrain and into the lower desert portions of southeastern Arizona and far southwestern New Mexico, where HRRR-based mesoanalsysis indicates a modest amount of buoyancy (~1000 J/kg) should support continued convective activity late this afternoon into the evening. The 18Z soundings and 2142 UTC aircraft-based sounding from Phoenix show hot, dry, and deeply-mixed boundary layers in advance of these storms. As a result, these storms could be capable of damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH -- particularly with the strongest downdraft cores, or along any interacting outflows. Conditions will continue to be monitored for potential watch issuance. ..Halbert/Thompson.. 07/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33521064 33711016 33550936 33310887 33070847 32880820 32660801 32250793 31780819 31380859 31260897 31290926 31600989 31921043 32081067 32271084 32441095 32611101 32991091 33521064 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH