Mesoscale Discussion 1579
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated thunderstorms developing along the South Dakota and Minnesota border this afternoon may produce infrequent damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-102300- Mesoscale Discussion 1579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102056Z - 102300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing along the SD/MN border may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a remnant surface boundary extending northwest-southeast across northeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. Isolated, ongoing thunderstorm development is noted along this boundary within a bullseye of locally greater buoyancy (2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis). With only weak to modest effective shear (20-25 kts) and mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km, convective organization and intensity are likely to remain limited overall. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and the aforementioned moderate to strong instability may support an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail (with perhaps an instance to 1.5" in diameter with the strongest cores). Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time owing to the expectation for the severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45899757 46089736 46119707 45919660 45669617 45299579 44939566 44549570 44149577 43889597 43659617 43499652 43519702 43749756 44269794 44679796 45229787 45519775 45899757 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN