Mesoscale Discussion 1855
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts may develop across northern Wisconsin and move into Upper Michigan later this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 072012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072011 MIZ000-WIZ000-072215- Mesoscale Discussion 1855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026 Areas affected...northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072011Z - 072215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may develop across northern Wisconsin and move into Upper Michigan later this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows convection beginning to form along the cold front as it moves into far northern WI and toward southwestern parts of Lake Superior. While substantial high clouds have overspread the warm sector, areas of heating exist, with temperatures now into the low 80s F. A special 18Z GRB sounding confirms steep lapse rates above the capping inversion, with overall moderate instability. Deep-layer shear is a bit marginal for supercells, but near 30 kt. Overall, this setup should favor scattered cells/clusters, with periods of hail and gusty winds. A supercell or two could produce hail at or above golf ball size. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 47468761 46988713 46558695 45988692 45518733 45188763 45008844 45168964 45739188 46239196 46619135 46809068 46878993 47498829 47468761 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN