Mesoscale Discussion 0986

Issued: 2026-06-05 17:46 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-06-05 17:45 – 2026-06-05 19:15 UTC

Product Text

000 ACUS11 KWNS 051746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051745 WIZ000-MNZ000-051915- Mesoscale Discussion 0986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051745Z - 051915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible through early afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Aided by modest forcing ahead of a subtle, mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage has increased across portions of central/east-central Minnesota ahead of a weak cold front/surface boundary as of early afternoon. While objective analysis indicates that available buoyancy remains weak (generally 500 to locally 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), continued insolation will support a destabilizing air mass through the afternoon. Modestly strong mid-to-upper level flow sampled by the DLH VWP and effective shear of around 25-30 kts are contributing to modest updraft organization, with marginal supercell structures noted per recent radar imagery from KMPX. Despite generally poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12z MPX observed sounding, a couple of instances of small to marginally severe hail may be possible over the next 1-2 hours with this activity. Steepening low-level lapse rates may also promote some potential for occasional strong to damaging wind gusts, especially if convection is able to organize into one or more convective clusters. While the exact evolution of this convective activity remains somewhat uncertain, latest guidance indicates that this activity may eventually evolve into one or more convective clusters as it progresses eastward. Weak effective shear is likely to somewhat limit convective organization. Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. Continued insolation of a moist low-level air mass will then yield further destabilization and the potential for some increase in severe potential later this afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45399297 45439357 45489433 45619480 45769492 45949486 46149461 46449373 46619313 46739263 46749191 46739130 46559063 46399037 46209023 45929022 45669036 45569045 45399078 45279128 45329214 45399297 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN