Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail are expected this afternoon and evening across the central and southern Plains, the upper Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Gulf Coast.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 250559 SWODY1 SPC AC 250557 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Central/southern Plains... The region will be influenced by a modest amplification of the large-scale pattern with a resultant increase in northwesterly flow aloft by late today into tonight, while a front progresses southeastward across the central High Plains. The front, as it intercepts a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer, will influence increasing thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon, with an orographically influenced increase in thunderstorms also occurring along the Raton Mesa/Front Range. Influenced by the strengthening northwesterlies aloft, effective shear across Nebraska and western Kansas will generally at least be 35-40 kt. On the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer, this will support some initial supercells capable of large hail, most probable across western/southern Nebraska into northern/possibly western Kansas. Influenced by the front and aggregating outflow, one or more southeastward-moving clusters capable of wind damage will likely evolve by evening across southern Nebraska and Kansas. While winds aloft will not be as strong, a similar upscale-growing quasi-linear trend will probably also occur with high-based storms from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and perhaps nearby Oklahoma, with severe-caliber wind gust potential spreading east-southeastward through the evening. ...Eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin/western upper Michigan... A shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level speed max) will dig southeastward over southern Manitoba toward northern Minnesota and Lake Superior tonight. While residual early day convection and cloud cover may curb destabilization for a time, and keep the warm sector somewhat narrow, strong to severe thunderstorm development should occur near the eastward-advancing front by around mid/late afternoon. 60s F dewpoints will contribute to a zone of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half of Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin by peak heating. Some supercells will be possible aside from more prevalent multicells/small clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards, at least on a widely scattered basis. ...Coastal Southeast/middle Gulf Coast... A moist/unstable environment will be favorable for isolated pulse-type severe thunderstorms capable of water-loaded downdrafts and wind damage, particularly during mid/late afternoon through around sunset. This currently appears most probable across coastal South Carolina, southern Georgia and northern Florida, although some strong thunderstorm wind potential might also exist across the middle Gulf Coast such as southern Louisiana. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/25/2026 $$