Mesoscale Discussion 2130
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are moving through portions of far southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas this evening. Expected hazards include hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter and wind gusts between 65 and 80 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 252157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252157 OKZ000-TXZ000-252300- Mesoscale Discussion 2130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252157Z - 252300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few of the stronger storms may continue to produce severe hail and perhaps severe gusts, especially if storms can progress further south into a deeper/dry airmass. Trends are being monitored closely for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster continues to propagate southward, with a history of producing measured hail over 1 inch in diameter, with MRMS MESH indicating up to 2 inch diameter hail potentially falling. As these storms continue to propagate farther south, they will encounter an even drier/deeper boundary layer, which may foster enough evaporative cooling to generate a few severe gusts via dry microbursts. It is unclear how far south storms will progress given increasingly weaker downstream deep-layer shear and overall drier air. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33690050 34890052 35290038 35500018 35520011 35359976 34389921 33919898 33369923 33249949 33270011 33690050 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN