Mesoscale Discussion 2136
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated damaging wind gusts are expected this afternoon across southern middle Tennessee, eastern Mississippi, and western and central Alabama. The potential severity includes wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 261703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261702 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-261930- Mesoscale Discussion 2136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Areas affected...southern middle Tennessee...eastern Mississippi...western and central parts of Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261702Z - 261930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for isolated occurrences of damaging winds is expected to increase by mid afternoon. A watch appears unlikely due to the limited areal coverage of the threat. DISCUSSION...A sub-severe MCS is ongoing across portions of western and middle TN as of late morning with a southeastward motion of 25-30 kt. Visible satellite imagery indicates additional deepening cumulus and incipient thunderstorm development over portions of eastern MS and western AL, in the vicinity of a weak quasi-stationary boundary analyzed in that area. The air mass across the discussion area is characterized by temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, yielding MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg, per latest objective analysis. Latest model guidance indicates a gradual increase in storm coverage this afternoon along the cold pool/gust front associated with the MCS as well as in the vicinity of the stationary front mentioned above. Weak mid-level lapse rates and vertical shear are expected to limit the potential for an organized severe weather threat. However, steepening low-level lapse rates and the presence of a relatively moist environment (PW of 1.8-2 inches) suggest the potential for locally intense wet microbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Mead/Mosier.. 08/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32208861 33338889 34858895 35328836 35468783 35398704 34328656 33108675 32238751 32088761 32208861 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH