Mesoscale Discussion 1645
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated wind damage is possible from marginally severe storms across northern New Jersey, northeast Pennsylvania, and portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England late this morning.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 181502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181501 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-181630- Mesoscale Discussion 1645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181501Z - 181630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to marginally severe storms late this morning. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A small linear cluster of storms has recently organized in northern New Jersey and adjacent northeast Pennsylvania. Storm cores have shown modest deepening on 7 km MRMS CAPPI over the last 30 minutes. The observed OKX sounding had poor mid-level lapse rates (5.3 C/km) but 45 kt of effective shear. Downstream of this current activity, cloud cover and smoke have hindered surface heating. Low-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep. While isolated wind damage is possible late this morning, the severe threat should remain marginal on account of very limited buoyancy. A watch is not expected. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40947548 41437505 41717294 41737225 41407211 40937244 40417446 40947548 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH