Mesoscale Discussion 1521
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of eastern Montana and western North Dakota early this morning.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 060636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060636 NDZ000-MTZ000-060830- Mesoscale Discussion 1521 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT into western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060636Z - 060830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning across parts of eastern MT, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front. While this convection is likely somewhat elevated, steep midlevel lapse rates atop relatively rich low-level moisture are resulting in MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg (per recent objective mesoanalyses), with sufficient effective bulk shear for some storm organization. This thermodynamic environment will favor some hail threat, especially with any longer-lived semi-discrete cells. Low-level nocturnal stabilization may limit the severe-wind threat to some extent, but isolated strong to severe gusts may still accompany the strongest downdrafts. The isolated severe threat may spread into parts of western ND with time early this morning. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46520370 46210448 46540510 47760545 48440518 48970431 49270288 49040226 48410245 46520370 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN