Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-08-17 06:04 UTC

Summary

A marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms, including possible tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, is expected across portions of the central and southern United States on Monday, August 17. These hazards are forecasted to affect wide areas from the Great Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast throughout the day.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 170604 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026 VALID TIME 171200Z - 181200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 40669992 40760105 41130149 42090150 43010122 43510083 43970019 44569872 44749805 44819755 44789707 44629652 44249627 43809619 43299629 42659649 42029687 41599732 41289767 40749907 40669992 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 39610025 39760126 39970204 40590285 41390328 42510335 43650311 44230261 44670196 44920097 45160027 46109863 46589786 46849726 46969663 46899592 46699515 46309467 45879447 45329425 44699416 44099418 43439440 42599487 41649571 40719678 40039793 39759907 39610025 0.15 40669998 40760098 41140147 42050153 43050126 43590084 44040022 44399934 44859796 44959712 44699648 44389610 43939595 43419603 42609638 42019678 41259769 40749905 40669998 && ... WIND ... 0.05 45860843 45800919 45880989 46291054 46861070 47451030 48000931 48470730 48320617 47840548 47170552 46520590 46040712 45860843 0.05 33798591 33988702 33998704 34418743 34898748 35378724 35948665 36808514 37698355 38718239 39378130 39718001 39697910 39337801 38877760 37777710 37067689 35937719 35197769 34687823 34307903 34038072 33798344 33798591 0.05 40910330 42500335 43550316 44280261 44790175 45280031 46109914 46919857 47529811 47909751 48069659 48049590 47969524 47699431 47379384 46919344 46099323 45259318 44479321 43799352 42769410 41909499 40509671 37570038 36530198 36570316 36810369 37480382 38740337 40800326 40910330 0.05 34459743 34729829 35109884 35559908 36029906 36299880 36439839 36389812 35969745 35529629 35419571 35219514 34959489 34719496 34399549 34369651 34459743 0.15 34788266 34658454 34738526 34948578 35128588 35518585 35998514 36558374 36958205 37068055 36867897 36647837 36427823 35917826 35587849 35297884 35137947 34978096 34788266 0.15 40659994 40760103 41130148 42110153 43050126 43550085 43990023 44429924 44809852 45599760 46129692 46299649 46299586 46189551 45669520 45119508 44089523 43349557 42089668 41269765 40729911 40659994 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... SLGT 35518585 35998514 36558374 36958205 37068055 36867897 36647837 36427823 35917826 35587849 35297884 35137947 34658454 34738526 34948578 35128588 35518585 SLGT 43050126 43590084 44040022 44439922 44809852 46129692 46299649 46299586 46189551 45669520 45119508 44089523 43349557 42089668 41269765 40729911 40659994 40760103 41130148 42050153 43050126 MRGL 36029906 36299880 36439839 36389812 35969745 35529629 35219514 34959489 34719496 34399549 34369651 34459743 34729829 35109884 35559908 36029906 MRGL 35378724 35948665 37698355 38718239 39378130 39718001 39697910 39337801 38877760 37777710 37067689 35937719 35197769 34687823 34307903 34038072 33798344 33798591 33998704 34418743 34898748 35378724 MRGL 38740337 40800326 42510335 43550316 44280261 44790175 45280031 46109914 47529811 47909751 48069659 47969524 47699431 47379384 46919344 46099323 44479321 42769410 41909499 37570038 36530198 36570316 36810369 37480382 38740337 MRGL 47451030 48000931 48470730 48320617 47840548 47170552 46520590 46040712 45800919 45880989 46291054 46861070 47451030 TSTM 28777988 28248001 27808034 27588084 27508146 27648228 27948300 28218343 99999999 48368661 45228908 43469109 41799280 40339550 39699696 38789751 38109732 37859686 37539456 37489199 38158763 39418468 40268301 41877690 43467231 46256648 99999999 28619098 29459208 29939248 30339233 31119117 32079004 32598984 33099080 33529256 33879599 34269973 34650274 34130449 33540495 31830448 30840402 29850391 29130399 28920405 99999999 31181280 33071129 33561104 34511157 35371243 36041213 36281154 36691021 38310805 39800692 42360470 43410453 43840531 44000621 43630815 43001044 43221138 43911315 43891489 44611654 44321789 43921864 43751978 44482030 45361909 46331664 47171479 47681447 48421506 49741578 && THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CHA 0 - CSV 40 SSE LOZ 40 NNE TRI 10 SE PSK 30 NE DAN 20 W AVC 20 SSW AVC 20 WNW RWI 25 SE RDU 20 N FAY 10 SW SOP 40 ENE RMG 20 S CHA 35 W CHA 40 W CHA 50 NW CHA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW VTN 55 NNW VTN 25 S PIR 45 N 9V9 30 NNW HON 55 S FAR 45 SSE FAR 35 S DTL 20 NNW AXN 15 SSE AXN 40 N RWF 35 SSW RWF 20 S OTG 25 SW SUX 20 SW OLU 0 - EAR 45 NE MCK 30 SW LBF 45 N IML 25 W MHN 40 WNW VTN THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CSM 35 SSW AVK 30 SSE AVK 10 W END 40 NNE OKC 35 ESE CQB 35 SSE MKO 15 WSW RKR 30 SW RKR 40 SSE MLC 30 NNW DUA 25 WNW ADM 10 NE FSI 25 SE CSM 15 NNE CSM 50 N CSM THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MSL 15 S BNA 15 NW JKL 25 NNE HTS 0 - PKB 0 - MGW 45 SSE LBE 0 - MRB 30 W DCA 20 NNE RIC 40 SE RIC 40 E RWI 25 N OAJ 35 NNW ILM 45 N CRE 25 ENE CAE 15 SSW AHN 15 NNW ANB 35 NNW BHM 25 SSE MSL 15 NE MSL 50 NNE MSL THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LIC 25 SW SNY 25 SSW CDR 35 S RAP 25 NE RAP 50 N PHP 20 SSE MBG 60 SSW JMS 50 NNE JMS 15 WSW GFK 20 W TVF 35 NNW BJI 30 ENE BJI 45 W HIB 45 SW HIB 50 ESE BRD 30 S MSP 15 NNE FOD 20 ESE DNS 25 WSW DDC 35 S EHA 10 N CAO 40 NW CAO 30 ENE TAD 40 SSE LIC THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LWT 45 SSE HVR 35 WNW GGW 20 ENE GGW 20 SSE OLF 35 W GDV 0 - MLS 90 N SHR 30 W BIL 40 S 3HT 40 N LVM 55 SE GTF 50 NW LWT GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MLB 40 ENE MLB 10 NNE VRB 25 W VRB 15 SW AGR 25 NE SRQ 20 W PIE 50 WNW PIE ...CONT... 135 NNE MQT 35 SE RHI 30 SSE LSE 40 NNE OXV 20 NNE FNB 40 NNW MHK 10 E SLN 30 N ICT 35 ENE ICT 25 N JLN 20 SSE TBN 10 NNW EVV 25 NNW LUK 20 NNW CMH 20 S ELM 10 S LEB 65 E HUL ...CONT... 70 SSW HUM 25 S 7R4 25 WNW 7R4 25 WNW LFT 35 SSE HEZ 15 S JAN 25 NE JAN 30 SSE GLH 25 NE ELD 25 ESE DUA 35 ESE CDS 40 ENE CVS 60 N ROW 30 NW ROW 20 E GDP 30 N MRF 35 S MRF 85 S MRF 100 S MRF ...CONT... 120 S GBN 50 ESE PHX 55 E PHX 45 S FLG 45 SSW GCN 0 - GCN 45 S PGA 65 SSE U17 15 SSW MTJ 10 N EGE 35 NW TOR 60 NE DGW 35 SSE GCC 40 SW GCC 25 SSW WRL 35 NNW BPI 40 ESE IDA 60 SW MQM 40 NW SUN 30 SW MYL 35 S BKE 25 NE BNO 45 WNW BNO 45 ENE RDM 25 SSW PDT 20 E LWS 40 SE 3TH 45 SSW GPI 40 W GPI 120 NW GPI