Mesoscale Discussion 1818
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts may develop across northern and central Alabama into northwest Georgia late this afternoon and evening. These storms could become severe, with wind gusts potentially reaching 55 to 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 012001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012000 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-012200- Mesoscale Discussion 1818 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026 Areas affected...northern and central Alabama into northwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012000Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a trailing cold front late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts may occur and a WW is possible. DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery showed a band of deepening cumulus and initial showers along a trailing cold front/surface trough stretching from southern Middle TN into northern AL/MS. South of the primary upper low over the Midwest, synoptic ascent is rather modest, as is confluence with veered low-level flow along the lagging surface front. Regardless, continued heating approaching convective temperatures should erode the very weak lingering inhibition, with the modest frontal forcing supporting storm development late this afternoon. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, the very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F are supporting large buoyancy sufficient for severe storms, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Most CAM guidance depicts one or more bands of storms developing along the front, with 20-30 kt of effective shear supporting a few organized lines/clusters. This would favor some risk for damaging gusts given high PWATs and water loading of downdrafts. Severe risk is expected to be focused with the more robust clusters across north-central AL and eventually into GA and southeast TN this evening. Given the potential for damaging gusts with these storms a WW is possible this afternoon. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32448675 32308798 32688864 32978862 33378857 33878830 34568760 34758741 35048708 35258668 35398546 35358470 35268453 35138436 34908438 34448458 33878486 33258530 32818581 32558625 32448675 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH