Mesoscale Discussion 2312
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail will move through the central Plains this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 200005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200005 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-200130- Mesoscale Discussion 2312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670... Valid 200005Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening. Locally damaging winds and hail will be the main threats. The need for a downstream watch will continue to be assessed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing this evening along a surface boundary/wind shift that stretches from the south Texas Panhandle northeast into southeast Iowa. Along and ahead of this boundary, temperatures warmed and remain in the mid-90Fs to lower-100Fs, with surface dewpoint temperatures in the mid-to-upper-60Fs along the boundary. The result is a very unstable environment with MUCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. However, the stronger vertical shear is lagging the instability axis and remains along and behind the surface boundary. Thunderstorms ingesting this airmass have been capable of producing measure severe wind speeds (65 mph) across Dickinson County, KS. These storms will continue northeast and threaten the northwest Kansas City metro area over the next couple of hours. The latest high resolution guidance suggests that ongoing thunderstorms will continue to move east, northeast and increase in number this evening. The increase in number of storms with their congealing outflow boundaries, coupled with nocturnal cooling, should eventually weaken overall instability and limit the long-term wind threat, especially with the strongest vertical shear remaining west of the area. A local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #670 just occurred, and the need for a downstream watch will continue to be assessed. ..Marsh.. 09/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN... DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35840006 37709957 39799715 40399587 40979388 39929331 38509395 37319471 36079667 35599868 35840006 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN