Mesoscale Discussion 2119
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Parts of central South Dakota may experience severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts through 10:30 PM CDT. The potential for these severe weather conditions remains high as storms continue to develop.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 242159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242159 SDZ000-242330- Mesoscale Discussion 2119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242159Z - 242330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. It is unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm is evolving along the surface trough/wind shift in central SD, with additional agitated boundary-layer cumulus nearby. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop an increasingly unstable PBL is yielding moderate surface-based buoyancy, which combined with an elongating/straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear), will support splitting supercells and small organized clusters. The primary concern will be large to very large hail and locally severe wind gusts. It is unclear how many storms will develop, given somewhat modest large-scale forcing for ascent and some lingering inhibition at the base of the EML. However, given the favorable environment, trends are being monitored and a watch is at least being considered. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44310145 44740151 45680122 45820092 45900021 45849985 45629954 45319943 44929939 44279960 43879992 43760060 43900117 44310145 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN