Mesoscale Discussion 1916
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Developing storms across southwest North Dakota and northern South Dakota may intensify into severe weather overnight. These storms could produce large hail, strong wind gusts, and tornadoes.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 110331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110330 SDZ000-NDZ000-110530- Mesoscale Discussion 1916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Areas affected...Southwest North Dakota into northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 110330Z - 110530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated convection developing across southwest North Dakota may continue to intensify and pose a severe threat over the next few hours, though confidence in exact evolution is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually intensifying to the west of Bismarck, ND over the past 45 minutes, and a few additional updrafts are noted to the southwest of this cell per GOES IR imagery. This activity appears to be driven by weak ascent within a diffuse low-level baroclinic zone draped from southwest ND southeastward into SD based on recent upper-air analyses. Although this activity is somewhat displaced to the north of the axis of greater buoyancy (and is upstream of the cold pool associated with a leading supercell in SD), the 00 UTC BIS RAOB and recent forecast soundings suggest buoyancy should be adequate for sustained deep convection downstream into south-central ND. Additionally, strong deep-layer shear remains in place across the region and can support intense supercell development (as evident by the aforementioned supercell in SD, which matured in a similar kinematic environment). Despite the favorable convective environment, it remains unclear whether this emerging cell will remain isolated or if additional convection will emerge within this zone and foster upscale growth along the baroclinic zone into SD later tonight. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed as dictated by storm evolution and intensity. ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45570379 46380319 46770250 46329853 46049819 45599830 45289877 45059933 44999957 45570379 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN