Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
A few strong or severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds may occur late this afternoon and early evening across southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. Overall, the likelihood of severe weather in these areas is expected to remain relatively low.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 240535 SWODY1 SPC AC 240532 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Southern Arizona/southern New Mexico to southern High Plains... A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail regionally, with a mid-level disturbance expected to spread northeastward from northern Baja toward Arizona, with multiple other convectively influenced perturbations spreading across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. Pockets of moderate destabilization could occur into peak heating across southeast Arizona/southern New Mexico, as well as the southern High Plains including parts of the Texas Panhandle and western portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. A few stronger/locally severe storms with hail and/or gusty winds could occur late this afternoon and early evening in these areas, but the overall magnitude/likelihood of severe storms is currently expected to remain relatively low. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/24/2026 $$