Mesoscale Discussion 1927
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Occasional damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and isolated small hail may occur across portions of the central Appalachians and the North Carolina and Virginia Piedmont through this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 111805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111804 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112000- Mesoscale Discussion 1927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the NC/VA Piedmont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111804Z - 112000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for occasional damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail will expand downstream over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...An ongoing MCS currently extending across portions of southern West Virginia has largely waned in intensity over the past 1-2 hours with modest cloud top warming noted via recent satellite imagery. In addition, a gradual transition toward a more outflow-dominant storm mode is likely ongoing as convection continues to encounter a more weakly sheared environment with southeastward extent (effective shear of 20 kts or less noted across western Virginia and northern North Carolina via latest objective analysis). Regardless, expectation is for this activity to continue south-southeastward through this afternoon along a surface buoyancy gradient. Modestly steeper low-level lapse rates noted downstream across the Piedmont should allow at least some potential for damaging wind gusts to continue, with the greatest potential likely to reside with the convection located along the aforementioned instability gradient. This threat is expected to remain generally isolated, however, owing to the more weakly sheared environment. Trends will continue to be monitored, but a downstream watch appears unlikely at this time. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 08/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 37588235 37748209 38088100 38048062 37878032 37397997 36597984 36277993 36068017 35968063 35988122 36138179 36478231 37078255 37338249 37588235 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN