Mesoscale Discussion 1871
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across portions of central Arizona through the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 082244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082244 AZZ000-090015- Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082244Z - 090015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores through the afternoon and evening hours. The severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse cellular storms and multicellular clusters have intensified over the past couple of hours as they attempt to approach the lower terrain from the Mogollon Rim. As this occurs, the storms will overspread a hot boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures over 100 F amid mid 50s F dewpoints. Ample evaporative cooling potential exists, as shown by 22Z mesoanalysis, with 1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE in place. As such, despite weaker vertical wind shear, a couple of the stronger storm cores may produce dry downbursts capable of supporting severe gusts through the afternoon and evening hours. Nonetheless, the severe threat should stay somewhat sparse, precluding the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... LAT...LON 34571333 34841258 34671140 34211081 33831052 33391046 33081077 32961148 33021230 33371300 34571333 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH