Mesoscale Discussion 1868
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Increasingly widespread thunderstorms over Ohio and western Pennsylvania may produce damaging winds and small hail through the next few hours. The severity of these storms is expected to be limited.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 082155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082154 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-090000- Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026 Areas affected...Ohio into western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082154Z - 090000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage over the next couple of hours, and could pose a risk for damaging winds, and perhaps large hail, over parts of Ohio and western Pennsylvania. However, the coverage of intense/severe thunderstorms should be sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying along a diffuse cold front from the northern shores of Lake Erie southwestward into western OH. So far most of this convection has largely been shallow with only occasional updraft pulses strong enough to produce lightning. However, with time the expectation is that continued forcing along the approaching front, combined with gradually deepening cold pools (especially where storm clustering can occur), should support adequate lift for intensification of a few cells/clusters within an otherwise buoyant and weakly capped environment. Regional VWPs are sampling mid-level winds between 30-35 knots, which should yield effective bulk shear values of around 25 knots - sufficient for some degree of storm organization. Consequently, a severe storm or two capable of producing damaging gusts and perhaps small to marginally severe hail may emerge from this regime over the next couple of hours. In general, the weak forcing for ascent should limit the coverage of strong/severe storms, and the onset of nocturnal cooling after 00 UTC should temporally constrain the severe threat to the next few hours. Given these limitations, watch issuance appears unlikely. ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40817862 40577883 40198067 39968178 39928251 39988329 40078367 40258385 40588381 40898343 41308263 41508203 41708151 42327967 42247881 41937838 41177845 40817862 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN