Mesoscale Discussion 1599
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail are possible across portions of the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama through this afternoon. These storms may produce localized wind gusts up to 65 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 121700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121700 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121900- Mesoscale Discussion 1599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of North Florida and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121700Z - 121900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two of small hail will be possible over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the Gulf Coast sea breeze from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida amid a hot and humid air mass, with a couple of gusts measured in the 40-45 mph range over the past 1-2 hours. Temperatures near 90 F and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s are already supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, with further destabilization expected through peak heating this afternoon. Coupled with high PW (greater than 2 inches) and steepening low-level lapse rates, an isolated risk for water-loaded downbursts, damaging wind gusts (with localized gusts to 65 mph possible), and perhaps an instance or two of small hail should materialize across the region. Weak effective shear and deep layer-flow will temper overall convective intensity and organization. Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30528654 30638694 30848714 31148709 31568668 31778581 31678470 31288317 30858213 30528168 30228136 29838111 29518091 29118076 28828072 28528094 28338128 28228167 28228197 28298217 28428230 28698254 28918284 29198312 29588346 29968402 29998425 29878444 29718466 29558488 29548531 29708548 29968570 30208601 30528654 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH