Mesoscale Discussion 2145
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe storms capable of damaging winds, hail, and a possible brief tornado may develop across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City, and northern Delaware from late morning through early afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 271457 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271457 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-271700- Mesoscale Discussion 2145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...New York City...and northern Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271457Z - 271700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado may increase by late morning into early afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing as of mid-morning from the New York City vicinity southwest toward Baltimore, with that activity potentially being aided by forcing for ascent associated with a low-amplitude disturbance moving into VA, per water vapor imagery. The inflow air mass to these storms is moist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and where stronger heating can occur, expect MLCAPE to increase to 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. A number of 12Z CAMs suggest the ongoing storms are likely to persist into early afternoon amidst the destabilizing environment. In that scenario, the presence of a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (see current DIX VWP) would support a conditional risk for embedded supercell structures capable of locally damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 39857580 40727540 41187489 41437413 41367351 40827327 39777390 39247433 39197502 39517570 39857580 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN