Day 3 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
A few severe thunderstorms may occur from eastern Nebraska into Iowa and northern Kansas on Friday afternoon and evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 161929 SWODY3 SPC AC 161928 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible from eastern Nebraska into Iowa and northern Kansas, mainly Friday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel high will persist over TX and vicinity as the current closed low over northern CA begins to progress eastward across the northern Great Basin. Around the northern periphery of the TX midlevel high, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge from overnight convection late Thursday into Friday morning near the mid MO Valley (NE/IA), with an associated weak wave along a slow-moving baroclinic zone. Assuming an MCV develops, some enhancement to wind profiles and associated vertical shear can be expected, which would support some organized/supercell storm potential in a narrow zone along the path of the MCV. Higher-based thunderstorm development may also occur along the trailing front/wind shift into KS where strong surface heating and deep mixing will favor inverted-V profiles and at least isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will again occur across the central/northern Rockies downstream from the Great Basin midlevel trough. A few pockets of stronger surface heating/destabilization could coincide with at least 30 kt midlevel flow and support the low-end potential for strong outflow gusts. This area will be monitored in later updates, but the severe threat appears to be too marginal to introduce severe probabilities this far in advance. ..Thompson.. 09/16/2026 $$