Mesoscale Discussion 1928
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and far southern New York, bringing a small threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 111840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111840 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-112045- Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and far southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111840Z - 112045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from eastern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and far southern New York. An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts may accompany any stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Developing/agitated cumulus are noted underneath an upper-level cirrus canopy as of 1830 UTC via recent satellite imagery. Aided by weak forcing for ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation progressing quickly eastward out of southern Ontario, continued insolation to the south of a weak surface cold front is expected to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development over the next 1-3 hours. Effective shear of 30-35 kts and around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will promote some potential for a few stronger updrafts. Water-loaded downbursts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with these more robust updrafts given modestly steep low-level lapse rates and a corridor of locally greater PW (1.5-1.75"). An instance of marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out with any transient supercell structure that can develop. Weak mid-level lapse rates should largely temper overall convective intensity and severe coverage, however. Thus, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 08/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 40117395 40317386 40507368 40577334 40677327 40897343 41167386 41407423 41857609 41807665 41547717 41137720 40557674 39937571 39757468 39837419 40117395 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN