Day 1 Convective Outlook
This product has been superseded. View the updated product →
Issued: · Valid: –
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 050601 SWODY1 SPC AC 050559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri and north-central Illinois. RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening, as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short multicell line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026 $$