Day 3 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Great Basin and the northern Plains on Saturday. These storms may produce damaging winds and could occur during the afternoon and evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 270729 SWODY3 SPC AC 270728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains. ...Northern Great Basin Vicinity... A broad range of 00Z guidance (GFS/RRFS/NAM) shows moderate instability developing across northern Utah on Saturday amid strong surface heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass by mid-afternoon when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to begin. 45 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support storm organization/longevity and some damaging wind threat (some 75+ mph). The ECMWF is the least unstable, with more cloud-cover across the region, which may limit the severe weather threat somewhat. Nonetheless, even this ECMWF solution would likely support some severe wind threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk seems warranted, and if all guidance trends toward the more unstable solution, an upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Northern Plains on Saturday within a moist region to the north of a surface low. Forcing will be relatively weak, but subtle height falls and perhaps a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the southwesterly flow, may be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show long hodographs across the region which would support a supercell storm mode. A Marginal Risk has been added for this threat, but the lack of stronger forcing precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 08/27/2026 $$