Mesoscale Discussion 1712
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the Oregon Cascades and western Blue Mountains late this afternoon into the evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 222149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222148 ORZ000-222345- Mesoscale Discussion 1712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Areas affected...Oregon Cascades into western parts of the Blue Mountains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222148Z - 222345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm potential will increase across the area late this afternoon into evening. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts are possible; however, the areal coverage is expected to remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends show thunderstorms developing over the Cascades and locations to the immediate east in response to the glancing influence of a subtle mid-level disturbance moving nearer to the coast. Strong daytime heating has led to temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s east of the high terrain, which, coupled with dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, is resulting in pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. The strongest mid-level winds and resultant vertical shear reside over western OR with around 30 kt of effective bulk shear analyzed across the Cascades. That slight shear enhancement coupled with the locally steeper mid-level lapse rates will support marginally severe hail potential over the high terrain this afternoon into evening. Farther east, a deeper, well-mixed boundary layer will favor latent cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer, leading to the potential for a few damaging wind gusts. ..Mead/Mosier.. 07/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... LAT...LON 42872253 44042256 44982246 45512192 45552119 45002068 43332087 42392134 42122197 42202254 42872253 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN