Mesoscale Discussion 1772
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southeast Arizona from late afternoon through the early evening. These storms may produce damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph and hail up to 1.25 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 272225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272224 AZZ000-280100- Mesoscale Discussion 1772 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southeast AZ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272224Z - 280100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through the afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and also across far southeast AZ. In the short term, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support potential for localized downburst winds, and small to near-severe hail. Modest midlevel easterlies atop low-level westerly winds are resulting in 30-40 kt of effective shear, which may support occasionally organized convection, and perhaps some west/southwest-moving clusters as outflow begins to increase in coverage. This may result in a threat for strong to localized severe gusts to reach lower elevations from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33341158 34001119 34501082 34371037 33680912 31540917 31280934 31201010 31291108 31511143 32771187 33341158 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN