Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

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Issued: 2026-06-20 08:32 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-06-23 12:00 – 2026-06-28 12:00 UTC

Summary

Severe weather is possible across the central High Plains on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, with additional threats possible through the end of next weekend. A substantial severe weather threat may also develop across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Midwest by late next weekend or early the following week.

Product Text

000 ACUS48 KWNS 200832 SWOD48 SPC AC 200830 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later. Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains. While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2026