Mesoscale Discussion 1741
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Weak thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph may move through far southeast Georgia and northern Florida over the next few hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 261820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261820 FLZ000-GAZ000-262015- Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast Georgia into northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261820Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Weak thunderstorms are moving into an environment favorable for strong downbursts capable of producing damaging winds. Watch issuance is not expected, but some wind threat may materialize over the next 2-3 hours across far southeast Georgia into northern Florida. DISCUSSION...KVAX and KJAX radar and GOES imagery shows steady growth of poorly organized convection across south-central GA with embedded swaths of strong winds noted in velocity imagery and confirmed by a recent report of 39 mph. Downstream of this activity, strong diurnal heating has allow temperatures to warm into the 90s with dewpoint depressions increasing to around 20 F. Boundary-layer depth/mixing has deepened sufficiently such that low-level lapse rates have increased to 8 to 8.5 C/km across northern FL into far southeast GA. Additionally, a subtle buoyancy axis is noted across this same zone. The potential for strong downbursts should increase over the next couple of hours as thunderstorms move into this thermodynamic environment. Regional VWPs continue to sample very weak deep-layer wind shear, which suggests that storm organization/longevity (and the overall severe threat) will continue to be limited. Nonetheless, based on the thermodynamic environment and recent reports downbursts may be capable of producing 40-60 mph gusts. ..Moore/Leitman.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30428363 30868245 31138213 31188177 31108155 30858141 30398140 30108154 29808181 29638217 29598252 29618281 29758323 29948341 30188357 30428363 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH