Mesoscale Discussion 1771
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe hail and wind are possible across portions of northeastern Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan through the early evening. These storms may produce wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to 1.75 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 272157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272157 MIZ000-WIZ000-272330- Mesoscale Discussion 1771 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272157Z - 272330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail or wind may accompany the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours. The severe threat should remain isolated, but convective trends will continue to be monitored should storm coverage become more widespread than anticipated. DISCUSSION...Several multicells and supercells have initiated ahead of a cold front, where prior storms have yet to overturn the troposhere. Ahead of the ongoing storms, surface temperatures remain over 80 F, amid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, yielding 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over MI and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE in WI, amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, the stronger, longer lasting storms may produce a few instances of severe wind or hail, especially with storms at the terminus of the 850 mb warm-air advection axis. The current thinking is that the majority of the storms will be shorter lived, with the severe threat likely remaining localized. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance should storms intensify further. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 45139008 45598867 46378659 46418495 45888409 45208366 44428342 44148379 44068492 43968620 43798747 43788847 44228989 45139008 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN