Day 3 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-09-11 19:22 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-09-13 12:00 – 2026-09-14 12:00 UTC

Summary

Strong thunderstorms with a marginal risk of hail and damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Northeast and the northern Plains from Sunday into Sunday night.

Product Text

000 ACUS03 KWNS 111922 SWODY3 SPC AC 111921 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may occur across parts of the Northeast, and across parts of the north central Great Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Ohio into the Northeast... A large upper low/trough will push across eastern Canada on Sunday, with a strong speed max aloft spreading across the Great Lakes late in the day. A cold front will push toward the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes late in the day, with a moist and marginally unstable air mass ahead of it. Areas of heating and lift near the boundary should support scattered afternoon/evening storms, and deep-layer shear of 30 to perhaps 40 kt could support a degree of organization. Lapse rates aloft appear to be poor overall, suggesting only a Marginal Risk of damaging gusts or hail will exist. ...Northern Plains... High pressure will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes as shortwave ridging occurs over the Plains during the day. A compact yet deep upper low is then forecast to move into the northern Rockies, with height falls increasing over the northern High Plains Sunday night. The steeper low-level lapse rates will be confined to the higher terrain from east-central WY to the Front Range in CO, with generally stable low levels to the east due to high pressure. After a days worth of heating, isolated surface-based storms may occur late over eastern WY, with additional activity developing within the warm advection regime as the low-level jet increases over the central Plains. The overall threat appear minimal, and likely in the form of marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 09/11/2026 $$