Mesoscale Discussion 2286
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered storms are expected to develop this evening across the northeast Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and southwest Kansas, bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts and hail.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 121953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121952 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-122145- Mesoscale Discussion 2286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Areas affected...southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 121952Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop after 21Z from the northeast Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas. Locally damaging wind and hail will be possible. DISCUSSION...A surface trough and wind shift extends from the TX Panhandle into southwest and central KS, with a secondary boundary/dying outflow from northwest OK into east-central OK. Easterly surface winds prevail over much of southern KS and northern OK, with dewpoints in the upper 60s F and lower 70s F. Heating of this moist axis continues as well, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg. Meanwhile, very hot temperatures exist to the south of the old outflow from central into southwest OK, with several locations over 105 F. Southerly winds prevail across this region, and surface convergence is maximized across northwest OK/eastern Panhandles and into southwest KS. Visible imagery already shows towering CU from northwest OK into north-central OK, with recent higher-based CU over the TX Panhandle. Models indicate storms developing by 21Z within this zone, with movement/additional development occurring eastward through the early evening. Shear is weak over southern areas, but does increase into KS. Given the steep lapse rate profiles and hot temperatures near the surface trough, initial high-based storms may produce severe gusts with multicellular storm mode. New development may propagate northeastward through the evening, with a few cells producing hail along with strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35990120 36890026 37709949 38089898 38239805 38149707 37909680 37599666 37209668 36729686 36249718 36069751 35979779 35959794 36049814 36119852 36119894 35889970 35630065 35740125 35990120 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN