Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected this evening across parts of the southern Plains and northward into the Gulf Coast states. Southern Arizona will also experience thunderstorms this evening with the potential for wind gusts exceeding 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 120037 SWODY1 SPC AC 120035 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will also be possible in southern Arizona. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States... A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments. The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening. Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50 degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to 80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595. ..Broyles.. 07/12/2026 $$