Mesoscale Discussion 1844
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds and hail will develop across far southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this evening. These storms may intensify later tonight, potentially increasing the threat of damaging winds.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 070048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070048 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070245- Mesoscale Discussion 1844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026 Areas affected...far southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...northwest Oklahoma...and portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070048Z - 070245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening with some potential for strong winds and hail. The isolated nature of this threat should preclude the need for a watch. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this evening, perhaps posing a renewed threat for damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are initiating across far southeast Colorado and portions of southwest Kansas this evening. These storms are developing within a hot airmass across portions of the Southern Plains, where surface temperatures are still around 100F. The eastern-most storm (across Clark and Meade counties in southwest Kansas) appears to have developed on a subtle wind-shift/differential heating boundary between the hot airmass to the west and a residual cold pool from earlier convection to the east. High-resolution guidance suggests that initiation/additional development will continue across southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado over the next couple of hours. MUCAPE values are quite large, with many areas in excess of 2000 J/kg. Effective-layer shear is around 40 knots, which would support at least some potential for at least transient supercell structures. Given the high-based nature of these thunderstorms (LCLs near 3 kilometers) and the dry sub-cloud layer, thunderstorm cold pools may eventually congeal into a coherent southward moving density current, leading to a compact, southward moving MCS during the late evening and overnight hours. Trends will be monitored for potential watch needs, but the relatively isolated nature of these initial thunderstorms should preclude the need for a watch. However, depending on the resulting strength of any congealed cold pool, a more coherent damaging wind threat may develop. This potential also will be monitored. ..Marsh/Mosier.. 08/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36810301 37280314 37550170 37720045 37659907 37109813 36489818 36149902 36130072 36520262 36810301 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN