Mesoscale Discussion 2335
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing brief tornadoes or damaging wind gusts may develop over southeast New Mexico and western Texas through the evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 292309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292309 TXZ000-NMZ000-300145- Mesoscale Discussion 2335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Areas affected...southeast New Mexico into parts of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292309Z - 300145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours. At least isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will be possible. DISCUSSION...A midlevel disturbance ahead of the primary upper low is now moving into NM and far western TX. Widespread precipitation and embedded thunderstorms currently extend from Hudspeth County north/northeastward toward the Clovis area. East of this ongoing activity, MLCAPE is generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, owing to a moisture rich air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. Area VWPs indicate around 20 kt 850 mb winds out of the southeast currently, but these winds are forecast to increase rapidly after 00Z, possibly reaching 50 kt between 03-06Z. This will both increase low-level shear, and storm relative inflow. Deep-layer shear over 40 kt may also support a degree of organization. Given the influx of low-level theta-e into the region, storms, perhaps evolving into a north-south line, are expected. Isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out with mainly wet downbursts, but the high RH boundary layer combined with increasing shear could just as well result in QLCS structures, with brief tornado risk. Storm evolution will continue to be monitored throughout the evening. ..Jewell/Hart.. 09/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31270413 32350472 32650499 32920529 33180489 33750445 33890420 33860304 33780249 33780249 33560222 32920222 32370231 32000257 31660296 31300347 31270413 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH