Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-06-28 08:48 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-07-01 12:00 – 2026-07-06 12:00 UTC

Summary

Potential severe thunderstorms may develop daily across parts of the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast from mid to late this week. The specific timing and exact locations of these storms remain uncertain due to a lack of strong weather patterns.

Product Text

000 ACUS48 KWNS 280848 SWOD48 SPC AC 280846 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 06/28/2026