Mesoscale Discussion 1586
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and marginal hail are expected to develop this afternoon across northern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. These storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph and hail up to 1.25 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 111734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111734 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-112000- Mesoscale Discussion 1586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...northern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111734Z - 112000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop this afternoon, with corridors of damaging gusts possible. DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over MO will move slowly east, with enhanced 30-40 kt midlevel westerlies from southern MO/northern AR into KY and TN. Also evident on area VWPs are 20-25 kt 850 mb winds, overall favoring storm clusters and a few longer-lived cells. Visible satellite imagery and surface obs currently indicate a boundary near the MO/AR border and extending into western KY, with surface convergence and a differential heating zone present. Strong heating is generating steep low-level lapse rates ahead of this boundary, though cooler air does exist into central KY and Middle TN. MLCAPE should rise to 2500 J/kg across much of the area, and persistent westerly winds should allow some recovery into Middle TN later today. Storms will likely develop along the boundary after 19Z, and spread east/southeast with propagating outflow. At least isolated severe gusts appear likely as storms will be coincident with peak heating. The strongest storms may produce marginal hail for short periods as well. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 36189413 36309375 36339315 36179052 36398942 36598863 36628811 36468758 35968711 35398697 35078719 34878775 34758816 34498934 34379079 34409171 34569273 34889385 35399436 35739445 36189413 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN