Day 2 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains and parts of the southern Appalachians and Carolinas. These storms may produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado in some areas, with isolated severe downbursts also possible across parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Product Text
000 ACUS02 KWNS 161734 SWODY2 SPC AC 161732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Isolated severe gusts may occur over Oklahoma. ...Northern Plains... Stronger winds aloft will overspread the area on Monday with a front pushing across the region. While temperatures aloft will be cool, low-level moisture will not be excessive. Storms are expected to form by 20Z over eastern ND and west-central MN, and over the Black Hills. The steep lapse rate environment, with modest MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg along with elongated mid to upper level hodographs will favor cells producing hail over 1.00". A greater/more concentrated severe risk is expected near and after 00Z, as activity matures as it moves southeastward into stronger instability from NE into southeast SD. Additional cells are also anticipated over central NE. Large hail is probable with all this activity, with scattered severe gusts as storms merge/cluster during the evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out late day/early evening as low-level shear increases with a southwesterly low-level jet. ...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas Vicinity... The ridge over the Southeast will weaken a bit as a midlevel waves moves through during the day. Speed at 500 mb will average near 30 kt, with 15-20 kt at 850 mb. This will aid southeastward storm motions as development occurs within the surface trough/wind shift from NC and southern VA into TN. Precipitable water near 2.00" combined with the afternoon well-mixed boundary layer should support gusty outflow winds, with a few severe gusts over 50 kt possible. Activity should wane after about 03Z. ...Parts of OK into AR... Dewpoints are forecast to be relatively high near a weakening boundary/wind shift that will extend roughly from the TX Panhandle across central/southern OK and into central AR. Daytime heating will then lead to a narrow east-west oriented corridor of steep boundary layer lapse rates, and strong instability. Shear will be weak, and so will forcing for ascent. However, several CAMs indicate at least isolated cells developing during the late afternoon, and locally severe downbursts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/16/2026 $$