Mesoscale Discussion 1492
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected to develop across parts of western and central Pennsylvania, eastern and central Ohio, and far northern West Virginia this afternoon. These storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 041736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041736 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-042000- Mesoscale Discussion 1492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA...eastern/central OH...and far northern WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041736Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing widely scattered wind damage will increase over the next few hours. A watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening along a lake breeze boundary southeast of Lake Erie, and within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow extending into central OH. Continued diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will support widely scattered thunderstorm development in these zones of mesoscale ascent over the next few hours, given an uncapped air mass. While around 20 kt of effective shear will limit thunderstorm organization, steep low/mid-level lapse rates (sampled by earlier 12Z soundings) and increasing deep-layer moisture will promote scattered damaging wind gusts with loosely organized clusters and cells. A watch is likely for parts of the area this afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39887812 39737931 39748071 39708200 39698296 39968361 40368365 40668338 41238166 41688021 41907891 41917818 41587755 41037735 40407760 39887812 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN