Mesoscale Discussion 1524
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe storms capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts may impact north-central Nebraska and northeast South Dakota this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 062012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062011 SDZ000-NEZ000-062215- Mesoscale Discussion 1524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into northeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062011Z - 062215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front will pose a threat of large hail and severe winds. Convective organization is not expected to be overly high, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed along a cold front in central/northeast South Dakota. Strong heating of an upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoint airmass has mostly eroded MLCIN faster than most earlier guidance had predicted. The observed 18Z ABR sounding showed an 8.4 C/km mid-level lapse rate, though some inhibition remains when modifying with current surface observations. The impacts of remaining MLCIN are apparent given that storms have not been able to intensify very quickly. With continued surface heating, however, strong to severe storms will become more likely along the boundary. These areas are much farther removed from the upper trough in Canada and mid-level heights are subtly rising as well. The less than ideal large-scale lift environment along with 20-25 kt of effective shear will likely limit overall storm organization and intensity. Large hail and severe wind gusts will still be possible with the strongest storms. Should enough clustering occur, a watch may need to be considered. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42890173 44949905 45549801 45459749 44599747 43259917 42660054 42540148 42660175 42890173 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN