Mesoscale Discussion 2273
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered thunderstorms may develop across northern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, and western New York through the afternoon, bringing a threat of damaging wind gusts and a brief possible tornado.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 091806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091806 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-091930- Mesoscale Discussion 2273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania and far western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091806Z - 091930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify through the afternoon. A few damaging gusts are the main concern, though a brief tornado may also occur. Some uncertainty remains regarding how widespread the severe threat will become. Therefore, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...A cumulus field with convective showers, just south of Lake Erie, continues to grow within the warm sector, just south of a broad precipitation band that is contributing to local baroclinicity. On the warm side of the baroclinic boundary, insolation is supporting surface temperatures climbing into the 80s F, amid 70s F dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg in negligible MLCINH. The current thinking is that storms should continue to expand in coverage while gradually intensifying. A 500 mb jet streak is currently overspreading the Midwest and is poised to reach the northern Appalachians in approximately 4-6 hours. As this occurs, vertical wind shear will also increase, with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear expected. When this occurs, multicells, transient supercells, and short line segments will all become possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Additionally, storms anchored along the baroclinic boundary may also produce a brief tornado. Given current shear limitations, it is unclear if or when a more widespread severe threat will materialize. Therefore, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... LAT...LON 40748389 42427846 42397750 41887726 41257776 40877890 40598007 40428101 40398203 40448341 40748389 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH