Mesoscale Discussion 2111
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph are expected across southern Mississippi, southeast Louisiana, and far southwest Alabama starting late morning and continuing into the early afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 241413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241412 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241645- Mesoscale Discussion 2111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Areas affected...southern Mississippi...east-central and southeast Louisiana...and far southwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241412Z - 241645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds with gusts up to 60-65 mph is expected to increase by late morning into early afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will be required by 16Z or 17z. DISCUSSION...Recent trends in volumetric radar and IR satellite data indicate at least a temporary deepening of convective updrafts from west through north of Yazoo City, along the leading edge of an elongated MCS that extends into central AR. The 12Z Jackson, MS and Slidell, LA soundings sampled the presence of a very moist inflow air mass, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, yielding MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. That instability will fuel a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity through the remainder of the morning along and slightly ahead of the system cold pool as temperatures warm and low-level lapse rates steepen. The instability in conjunction with some enhancement of northwest winds above 3 km AGL per the current Little Rock, AR and Memphis, TN VWPs will support the development of a potentially intense cold pool with some explicit CAM wind gust data indicating wind gusts up to 60-65 mph. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30869201 31729190 32189089 32188981 32158901 32018847 31298773 30458766 29538901 29168972 29289127 29809219 30719211 30869201 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH