Mesoscale Discussion 1754
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to severe storms with the potential for damaging winds and hail may increase across eastern Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan overnight.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 270440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270439 MIZ000-270645- Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Upper MI into northern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 270439Z - 270645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase in coverage overnight. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently intensified across southeast Lake Superior and adjacent Upper MI. This convection is potentially being aided by a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. There may be some tendency for storms to increase in coverage overnight and move south-southeastward along the primary buoyancy gradient. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear of 40+ kt will continue to conditionally support storm organization. Isolated hail may occur with the strongest cells, while any notable upscale growth could result in an increasing wind-damage threat. Uncertainty remains high regarding storm evolution overnight, and short-term guidance continues to struggle with handling ongoing convection. While the severe threat may remain relatively isolated in this region, watch issuance is possible if observational trends support an increasing coverage of severe threat. ..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT... LAT...LON 46758598 46888488 46428405 45428356 44138360 43878380 43878492 44008589 44268637 44988676 45278678 45608683 46518621 46758598 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN